[Mustafa Kirişçi, İbrahim Kocaman]
This article explores the reasons that explain the transformation of terrorist campaigns into full-scale civil wars. It delves into the factors influencing this escalation, highlighting three key elements: the state’s response, the terrorist group’s actions, and interstate relations.
The study found that greater state repression would increase the chance of terrorist campaigns to escalate to a civil war. It also provides contrasting examples from Mozambique and Angola versus Canada and Spain to illustrate their finding. In terms of the terrorist group’s actions, the study’s findings revealed that groups that diversify their tactics are more likely to escalate conflicts into civil wars. In relation to this finding, the study offers examples from UNITA and Renamo that utilized a wide range of strategies, and explains how their diverse tactical portfolio including assassinations, bombings, and armed assaults increased their capability for organized insurgency. Finally, the analysis provided by the study highlights the role of interstate relations in shaping conflict dynamics. Countries engaged in rivalries with other states are less prone to facing terrorist campaigns escalate into civil wars.
Overall, the study underscores the complex interplay between state responses, terrorist group actions, and geopolitical factors in determining the escalation of terrorist campaigns into civil wars. It advocates for approaches that address underlying grievances, avoid excessive repression, and consider broader geopolitical dynamics in counterterrorism strategies. By comprehensively understanding these factors, policymakers can better mitigate the risk of terrorist campaigns evolving into prolonged and devastating civil conflicts.
Mustafa Kirişçi, İbrahim Kocaman, İsa Haskoloğlu
Reference:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17467586.2023.2182446
Mustafa Kirisci is an adjunct professor at Moravian University. His research interests fall in terrorism, civil conflict, cybersecurity, interstate conflict and civil-military relations studies. His peer-reviewed papers appear in well-known journals of security studies, such as International Interactions, Terrorism and Political Violence, Government and Opposition, Critical Studies on Terrorism, Defense and Peace Economics, Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict. His opinion pieces are published in TheConversation, Political Violence at a Glance, Inkstickmedia and Defense Domain.
Dr. Ibrahim Kocaman is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Security Studies & International Affairs at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. He received his Ph.D. in Political Science (with a focus on Comparative Politics and International Relations) from the University of North Texas in 2022. He also has Master of Arts in International Security Studies (from Air War College) and Master of Science in Electronic Warfare Systems Engineering (from Naval Postgraduate School) degrees. His research and teaching interests include civil-military relations, interstate and civil conflict, conflict management, human rights, intelligence, Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Dr. Kocaman served as an intelligence officer at the Turkish Air Force prior to his academic career. He also served in Afghanistan and at NATO with operational intelligence assignments.
