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Focus Point: Emerging Technologies & Data- Cybersecurity
Characterizing a NATO Cyber Victimology: A Futurist Anticipated Shame Cyber Attacker Model | NAVI Research Institute
By Tim Pappa and Mike Ross |13.12.2024
Our latest op-ed is “Characterizing a NATO Cyber Victimology: A Futurist Anticipated Shame Cyber Attacker Model” by Tim Pappa and Mike Ross, LCSW, Ph.D. (ABD) Candidate.
In a world where cyber warfare transcends borders, understanding the motivations and vulnerabilities of cyber attackers becomes critical.
At the forefront of global security, NATO works tirelessly to anticipate threats in cyberspace—threats not only to infrastructure but to the very fabric of international stability.
A groundbreaking model is emerging—linking attacker behavior to anticipated outcomes. The Shame Cyber Attacker Model explores how cyber threats evolve when attackers’ reputations and societal perceptions are at stake.
From anticipated shame to complex cyber motives, this innovative framework helps us predict adversary behavior… before they strike.
By analyzing victimology—understanding how and why attackers select their targets—NATO enhances its proactive defense strategies, keeping allied nations secure.
Explore the full study and discover how NATO is shaping the future of cyber resilience. Because in the digital age, knowledge is our strongest shield. Read more…
Focus Point: Regional Security- Indo-Pacific
Xi brought down powerful rivals in the military. Now he’s going after his own men | CNN
By Nectar Gan | 15.12. 2024
Experts say Xi’s purge of a longtime acolyte points to a familiar dilemma for autocrats, including his predecessor Mao Zedong: after eliminating political rivals, the supreme leader never stops looking for new threats to their absolute hold on power – including from their own close circle.
In the early years of Xi Jinping’s war on corruption, the Chinese leader consolidated control over the world’s largest military by taking down powerful generals from rival factions and replacing them with allies and proteges loyal to himself.
A decade on, having given the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) a structural overhaul and stacked its top ranks with his own men, the supreme leader is still knee-deep in his seemingly endless struggle against graft and disloyalty.
And, like many strongman leaders in history, he is increasingly turning against his own handpicked loyalists.
Late last month, Xi purged one of his closest proteges in the military – a decades-old associate entrusted with instilling political loyalty in the PLA and vetting senior promotions.
Adm. Miao Hua, who sits on the Central Military Commission (CMC), the top command body chaired by Xi, has been suspended under investigation for “serious violations of discipline,” the Defense Ministry announced, using a common euphemism for corruption and disloyalty.
As the head of the CMC’s political work department, which oversees political indoctrination and personnel appointments, Miao is the most senior scalp in Xi’s latest military purge. Since last summer, more than a dozen high-ranking figures in China’s defense establishment have been ousted, including the last two defense ministers promoted to the CMC by Xi. Read more…
Focus Point: Regional Security- Middle East
U.S. Fears Military Buildup by Turkey Signals Preparations for Incursion Into Syria | WSJ
By Lara Seligman and Alexander Ward | 16.12.2024 |Subscription needed
Senior U.S. officials say Turkey and its militia allies are building up forces along the border with Syria, raising alarm that Ankara is preparing for a large-scale incursion into territory held by American-backed Syrian Kurds.
The forces include militia fighters and Turkish uniformed commandos and artillery in large numbers that are concentrated near Kobani, a Kurdish-majority city in Syria on the northern border with Turkey, the officials said. A Turkish cross-border operation could be imminent, one of the U.S. officials said.
The buildup, which began after Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell in early December, appears similar to Turkish military moves ahead of its 2019 invasion of northeast Syria. “We are focused on it and pressing for restraint,” another of the U.S. officials said.
Ilham Ahmed, an official in the Syrian Kurds’ civilian administration, told President-elect Donald Trump on Monday that a Turkish military operation appeared imminent, urging him to press Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan not to send troops across the border.
Turkey’s goal is to “establish de facto control over our land before you take office, forcing you to engage with them as rulers of our territory,” Ahmed wrote to Trump in a letter viewed by The Wall Street Journal. “If Turkey proceeds with its invasion, the consequences will be catastrophic.”
A spokesman for Turkey’s embassy in Washington didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Read more…
Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- Russia-Ukraine War
Trump Says Zelenskiy Should Prepare to Make Deal to End War | Bloomberg
By Josh Wingrove and Akayla Gardner |16.12. 2024 |Subscription needed
President-elect Donald Trump said Ukraine needs to reach a deal to end the Russian invasion and downplayed the value of occupied land, in the latest signal he may push for a settlement that codifies Russian territorial gains.
“He should be prepared to make a deal, that’s all,” Trump said of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, while speaking Monday at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida club. “Got to be a deal. Too many people being killed.”
Trump said the war in Ukraine is “a nasty one” and said an “astronomical” number of soldiers are being killed on both sides. “If I were president, that war would have never happened,” he said. Read more…
Focus Point: Regional Security- Middle East
Trump says Turkey orchestrated Assad’s overthrow in Syria | Politico
By Joe Stanley-Smith | 16.12. 2024
Turkey controls the militants that ousted former Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said during a wide-ranging and at times incoherent press conference Monday.
“Those people that went in are controlled by Turkey,” he said during the event, his first press conference since winning the presidential election in November. “And that’s okay, that’s another way to fight.”
U.S. president-elect said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan conducted an “unfriendly takeover” of Syria, which Turkey has wanted “for thousands of years.”
Asked if he was concerned about further unrest, Trump said: “Nobody knows what the final outcome is gonna be in the region. Nobody knows who will rule in the final. I believe it is Turkey. Turkey is very smart, he is a very smart guy and he’s very tough. Turkey did an unfriendly takeover without a lot of lives being lost.”Read more…
Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- Russia-Ukraine War
A bomb kills the head of Russia’s nuclear defense forces and his assistant in Moscow | AP News
By AP News | 17.12.2024
An explosive device planted close to a residential apartment block in Moscow killed the head of Russia’s Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defence Forces, Lt. General Igor Kirillov, early Tuesday, Russia’s Investigative Committee said.
Kirillov’s assistant also died in the blast, triggered by the device which was placed in a scooter, officials said.
The bomb was triggered remotely, Russian state news agency Tass reported, citing unnamed sources in the emergency services.
Russian investigators have opened a case into the two deaths, according to the committee’s spokesperson Svetlana Petrenko.
“Investigators, forensic experts and operational services are working at the scene,” she said in a statement. “Investigative and search activities are being carried out to establish all the circumstances around this crime.”
Ukraine’s Security Services on Dec. 16 charged Kirillov with the use of banned chemical weapons during Russia’s military operation in Ukraine that started in Feb. 2022.
Ukraine Perspective: https://lnkd.in/evCtT_V9
Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security
Press statement by President von der Leyen with President of Türkiye Erdoğan | The EU Commission
By The EU Commission | 17.12.2024
President von der Leyen: …now we have to step up and continue our direct engagement with HTS and other factions.
President von der Leyen’s press statement details her meeting with President Erdoğan in Ankara. Key discussion points included the situation in Syria, focusing on a peaceful transition, humanitarian aid, and the need for voluntary refugee returns. The statement also addressed EU-Türkiye relations, highlighting strong economic ties, plans to strengthen trade, and continued EU support for Syrian refugees in Türkiye. Future cooperation on migration management and a modernized Customs Union were also emphasized. Finally, the importance of Türkiye’s role in regional stability and combating terrorism was acknowledged. Read more…
Focus Point: Regional Security- Middle East
Former U.S. ambassador to Turkey says Trump is exaggerating the country’s influence on Syria | CBC News
By CBS News |18.12.2024
(The conversation that follows has been edited for length and clarity by NAVI Research Institute)
Anchor: That was president-elect Donald Trump speaking to reporters Monday about the role turkey could play in Syria’s uncertain future it’s been more than a week since the fall of former Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad Turkish officials have denied encouraging the rebel offensive that led to Assad’s downfall. But the country has openly supported Syrian opposition forces for years…
David Satterfield joins us now he’s a former US ambassador to Turkey and director of rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. Thank you so much for being here with us. This evening Trump also said the Syrian rebels are quote controlled by Turkey how much influence does Turkey have over the rebel forces and what is Turkey’s ultimate goal?
David Satterfield: I think it’s an exaggeration to say that Turkey controls all of the forces now present in Damascus . It is true Turkey had a very significant support role for the Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group now in control of large portions of Syria, but the future of Syria lies in the hands of those groups where Turkey does exercise direct and significant control is along its border with Northern Syria. There, the Turks have a supportive militia the Syrian National Army. The Turks have wanted for many years now to secure a border a buffer zonealong their own border with Syria that would protect Turkey and their justification from attacks coming from Syria. Now this has been a complicated issue for the United States for the past seven years. We strongly support our Kurdish Partners. They’re the partners that were vital in
facilitating the end to the ISIS caliphate and to keeping ISIS under control. They also control two significant facilities in Northeast Syria: one a prison camp for some 8,000 foreign terrorist Fighters, the other a facility for some 40,000 dependence of those fighters many of whom are themselves dangerous
…So, we’re engaged in a dialogue with Ankara right now as we have been for many years to try to balance two imperatives recognizing the right of a NATO partner and ally Turkey to defend itself against terror, to exercise its right of self-defense but also to preserve in Northeast Syria the partnership which has secured not just Syria but the world against a further outbreak of ISIS terror
Anchor: The US has 900 troops in Syria Trump has not said what he plans to do with them why are they there and do you see them staying?
David Satterfield : … Now in saying that, the US supports a unified Syria we do not support, we have never supported fragmentation of Syria and we have not supported the concept of statelets, substates emerging. Read more…
Focus Point: Emerging Technologies & Data- Standards
NATO Allies agree common approach to counter information threats | NATO
By NATO | 19.12.2024
On 18 October 2024, Allied Defence Ministers endorsed NATO’s Approach to Counter Information Threats. This will strengthen the Alliance by establishing a well-connected and interoperable approach to identify, prevent and respond effectively to information threats.
The Alliance continues to face growing hybrid threats from state and non-state actors who frequently target our values and undermine our security, not least through manipulation of the information environment.
NATO’s approach focuses on information threats: intentional, harmful, manipulative and coordinated activities, which routinely include information manipulation and interference by foreign actors, and information operations. These activities are used to create confusion, sow division, destabilise societies, influence perceptions and behaviours, and ultimately have a negative impact on NATO, Allies and partners. Read more…
Focus Point: Regional Security- Middle East
Former U.S. ambassador to Turkey says Trump is exaggerating the country’s influence on Syria | The Guardian
By Editorial | 22.12.2024
Diplomacy is often known as the art of making the impossible possible. If so, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s de facto leader, has proved a master of persuasion and compromise. Despite his Islamist faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), being blacklisted as a terrorist organisation by the US, UK, EU and UN, Mr Sharaa has welcomed their officials to Damascus. His “productive” talks with the US led to a $10m bounty on his head being lifted. To signal change, he has shed his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, and rebel fatigues to steer Syria away from 54 years of Assad rule.
In return, different external powers want different things. Many nations emphasise the need to respect minorities, the rule of law and ultimately to establish inclusive government. Some, however, have self-interested requests. Russia would like to keep its military bases. The US, which admitted to having 2,000 troops in Syria, wants to roll back Iranian influence and fight Islamic State with Kurdish allies. Turkey, which says it will lift restrictions on HTS, wants to push back those Kurdish groups and their demands for autonomy. Read more…
Thank you very much for reading.
The NAVI Research Institute is the research division of NATO Veterans Initiative - NAVI that provides a unique perspective to transatlantic leaders and societies on peace and security through the lens of NATO's founding principles of rule of law, democracy, human rights, and individual liberties. The NAVI Research Institute was officially established by the NAVI Board on July 16th, 2023.
