Highlights

• Although climate change has traditionally been discussed regarding its consequences on the physical environment, recent studies have shed light on its potential to influence crime rates within societies.
• Rising temperatures, resource depletion, and natural disasters caused by climate change are associated with increased strain and criminal behavior.
• The global repercussions of climate change on crime have been demonstrated through research conducted across numerous countries, which consistently show a rising trend in criminal activity as a consequence of climate change.
• Certain social groups, such as refugees, might be more prone to experiencing increased mental health issues and criminal activity due to climate change.
• The potential for domestic and international climate-induced conflicts adds layers of complexity to security concerns.

Key Terms

• Climate Change: A gradual alteration in the typical weather conditions that are caused by natural shifts and/or human activity, resulting in severe adverse effects, including increased sea levels, natural disasters, large-scale migration, and scarcity of resources.
• Anomie: A concept developed by sociologist Emile Durkheim, referring to the state of normlessness or social instability that arises from the breakdown of standards and values.
• General Strain Theory: A criminological theory suggesting that the experience of strain, resulting from the failure to attain conventional goals, the loss of positive life factors, or the presence of negative life factors may lead to mental health issues and an increased likelihood of engaging in criminal behavior.
• Homer-Dixon Model: A framework for understanding the interplay between the scarcity of renewable resources, such as water and soil, and the occurrence of violent conflict within countries, illustrating how environmental shortage can lead to destabilizing social effects, thereby increasing the likelihood of violent conflict.

Introduction

Climate change has been widely recognized as one of the most critical threats to the planet’s future. As global warming becomes an increasingly pressing issue, its consequences are becoming more visible, such as rising sea levels, increased frequency of natural disasters, significant temperature increases, and diminishing resources. However, recent studies have revealed another alarming consequence of climate change: an upswing in crime rates. The research indicates that rising temperatures and the depletion of natural resources due to climate change are closely linked to increased levels of aggression and violence¹. Additionally, these studies show a significant connection between natural disasters and heightened levels of anomie and strain in societies, leading to increased criminal activity.¹ These findings have far-reaching implications for public safety and national security, making it a crucial area for research. This report provides an overview of the existing research on the relationship between climate change and crime. Specifically, it presents evidence showing how climate change, as well as its natural consequences such as global warming, result in changes in crime rates and how this criminal activity unfolds within societies experiencing it. The report calls for the implementation of protocols and efforts to reduce human impact on climate change, which could potentially decrease the expected rise in crime rates.

To select and synthesize the appropriate sources for this scoping review, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria were employed.² Databases, including Science Direct and Scopus, proved to be the most effective in yielding relevant peer-reviewed journals, books, and articles for this review. Sources that did not address climate change, crime, or strain were excluded as they were not pertinent to this report’s purposes. The finalized list of sources consisted of seventeen articles that were reviewed for further analysis. Each article was summarized and recorded in a data sheet for easy access and was sorted based on central topics and keywords. Then, a thematic analysis was conducted to reveal the main themes for each group of sources. These themes included 1) the link between climate change and crime, 2) physical and psychological threats, and 3) the effects on different countries and groups. The following sections provide an overview of each of these topical themes.

The Link between Climate Change and Crime

Climate change is a topic that continues to generate a great deal of discussion and concern worldwide as rising temperatures and panic escalate. This issue affects every population in every corner of the world and leads to potentially catastrophic consequences such as habitat change, flooding of coastal areas, adverse health effects, food and freshwater shortages, loss of and threats to livelihood, increased migration, and increased social conflict.³ Research using the General Strain Theory framework suggests that all of these consequences of climate change have the potential to lead to increased levels of strain among people, ultimately leading to negative affective states, such as depression, anxiety, and anger. Consequently, this increased strain may contribute to a greater likelihood of engaging in criminal behavior.³ In addition to the General Strain Theory (GST) framework, certain studies have also utilized the Homer-Dixon model, which focuses on the scarcity of resources through migration and state hardening as intervening variables.⁴ This model identifies various types of crime that will occur as global warming persists, and the GST framework provides a crucial “back end” to the Homer-Dixon model by offering insights into crime outcomes. The GST and Homer-Dixon models offer valuable information on crime and crime theory, as well as shedding light on new patterns of human activity, including criminal and predatory behavior. They predict that property crime and violence will increase due to the struggle for resources, which can be traced to the loss or threat to livelihood.⁴

The connection between climate change and crime, as proposed by both GST and Homer-Dixon models, is also consistent with the findings of several academic studies. A study on the relationship between volatile temperatures and crime found that temperatures are becoming more unpredictable due to climate change, and it estimates violent crime by examining the connections between extreme temperature changes and the frequency of violent incidents.⁵ The study’s results are significant in suggesting a correlation between the two. Furthermore, another study that used a 30-year panel of monthly crime and weather data in 2997 US counties revealed a strong positive correlation between temperature and criminal activity.⁶ This study showed that between 2010 and 2099, global warming would lead to an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 rapes, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 vehicle thefts in the US alone. These projections were calculated using a semi-parametric bin estimator that controlled for state-by-month and country-by-year fixed effects. In addition, another study found that in a Box-Jenkins time-series analysis from 1950 to 1999, temperature was linked to assault.⁷ While the connection between homicide and temperature change is unclear, the evidence for the increase in other crimes is compelling.

According to another study, there is a lot of misleading information regarding global warming and its effects on society.⁸ This study highlights the importance of being able to differentiate between high-quality and low-quality research. However, conducting and trusting research in this field can be challenging due to the uncertainty of the sources and previous studies, as some findings may be politically motivated and, therefore, invalid. Once credible data and research on climate change have been identified, the majority of resources tend to have similar findings. Another crucial issue in this topic is population growth, which depletes resources and places a greater strain on the environment to meet the needs of individuals.⁹ This, in turn, accelerates global warming at an alarming rate. Additionally, developed countries’ pollution contributes to increased pressure to keep up with economic growth. The depletion of resources is expected to create significant challenges for the human species, including an increase in criminal activity, as supported by previous sources.⁹ Overall, climate change has been strongly linked to crime due to various consequences, such as rising temperatures, social conflict, and natural disasters.

Physical and Psychological Threats

The consequences of climate change extend beyond environmental effects, as it can lead to physical and mental health issues for humans and the environment. One of the most significant concerns is the potential for increased aggression due to global warming. Rising carbon dioxide levels have resulted in a change in the worldwide environment, causing urban areas to experience longer periods of extreme heat, which has been linked to increased aggression and crime rates. A study analyzing crime and weather data from six U.S. cities between 1995 and 2019 found a positive correlation between high temperatures and murder rates.¹⁰ These findings suggest that rapid climate change can lead to sociological, political, economic, and psychological changes that may increase the likelihood of violent behavior.¹¹

Psychological changes can offer answers to the ensuing violence caused by global warming in various ways, with one study revealing that although psychological research is not strongly integrated with climate change literature that causes conflict, there are underlying issues with the human psyche that have effects on social crime.¹² Another study that specifically focused on the types of psychological issues caused by climate change found that climate-fueled acute events and chronic climate disruptions correlate with forms of psychopathy, including rising accounts of anxiety, distress, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, and suicide.¹³ These can be due to sudden natural disasters causing displacement and the worsening conditions of overall life caused by global warming. While it is known that psychological health is a factor in crime, there is also evidence that physical health and its consequences due to financial costs and desperation cause extreme strain and increase crime rates as well. Support for the theory that climate change has adverse effects on health is evident in a study that used the China Health and Nutrition Survey and found that extreme heat causes morbidity, disease severity, hospitalization, and treatment costs.¹⁴ It explains that the financial health expenditure increases by CNY 38.97 million for each additional day of extremely high temperature. Extreme heat also reduces daily physical activity and walking commutes, which is a latent cause of poor health in an individual’s future. As physical health depletes due to rising temperatures, this may cause more significant impacts on mental health and create strain, therefore correlating with crime and making physical health, psychological health, and crime interconnected via climate change.

The Effects on Different Countries and Groups

The growing concern over the impact of climate change on communities is becoming more pressing as it is an issue that affects people worldwide. Although the majority of research on this subject has been carried out in the United States, it is a global concern that extends beyond the US and significantly influences different cultures. For instance, a study conducted in Australia on the relationship between crime, weather, and climate change revealed a notable impact of global warming on crime rates in the country.¹⁵ The study analyzed the effect of temperature on crime across 3,000 postcodes from 2001 to 2019 and found that a one-standard-deviation increase in temperature was associated with a 0.008 to 0.011 standard deviation increase in crime rates, depending on the specification. This indicates that Australia can expect an additional 72,000 crimes yearly due to rising temperatures. Similar to Australia, the relationship between climate change and crime rates has been extensively documented in other countries, which is a cause for concern. For instance, a study of climate change, crime, and suicide in Japan revealed that mental health issues might also play a role in these associations.¹⁶ The study used prefecture-level monthly panel data from 2009 to 2015 to examine the correlation between climate change and suicide rates in the country. The results showed that increased suicide levels were observed when the average temperature rose. Empirical evidence on climate change and crime from a study conducted on 129 prefecture-level cities in China reveals that between 2013-2019, extreme climatic conditions had a significant impact on crime rates, resulting in a 0.035% increase for every 1% rise in the extreme climate index.¹⁷ This increase was attributed to two separate pathways, including reduced agricultural output and lower employment income, through which extreme climate conditions lead to increased crime rates. The study suggests that reducing emissions and implementing conservation efforts can help reduce crime related to extreme climate events.

Climate change is a concern not only for different countries but also for social groups with less support and standing. Refugee communities are particularly vulnerable to the issues of climate change and crime due to the strain they experience from rising global warming consequences. A study examining the impact of natural disasters on specific populations found that Typhoon Haiyan caused substantial strain through financial devastation and anomie.¹⁸ The term “climate refugee” is used to describe millions of people who are at risk due to climate change, but who receive no assistance from nations during climate disasters.¹⁸ The study underscores that climate change is a problem not only for developed areas but also for those forced to migrate for various reasons. Different social groups will be affected differently by the worsening global warming crisis, but all groups are projected to experience adverse effects.

Conclusion and Implications

The research presented in this report demonstrates a relationship between climate change and crime. Rising temperatures, depletion of resources, and natural disasters connected to climate change contribute to heightened levels of societal strain and aggression, resulting in a surge in criminal activity. The General Strain Theory (GST) and the Homer-Dixon models offer valuable insights into the influence of climate change on criminal behavior, suggesting that negative consequences of climate change, such as environmental degradation, resource scarcity, and migration, can create strain that may lead to criminal acts. Furthermore, the impact of climate change on crime rates is not limited to specific regions but has global implications. Studies from various countries, including the United States, Australia, Japan, and China, show a consistent pattern of increased crime associated with extreme climate events and rising temperatures. Climate change poses not only physical threats but also significant psychological and social consequences. Aggression, mental health issues, and strain among vulnerable populations, such as refugees, contribute to a complex interplay between climate change and crime. The findings of this report emphasize the pressing need for proactive policies and interventions to mitigate the effects of climate change on crime. Strategies focusing on reducing emissions, conserving resources, and supporting vulnerable communities can help alleviate the strain that fuels criminal behavior.

The impact of climate change on crime rates presents significant implications for national security that require careful consideration from policymakers and security experts. Climate change contributes to increased criminal activity through various pathways, including resource scarcity, population displacement, and heightened social tensions, which challenge traditional notions of security. For nations, this translates into vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, disruptions in supply chains, and strains on law enforcement and emergency response capabilities. Furthermore, the potential for domestic and international climate-induced conflicts adds layers of complexity to security concerns. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive approach that integrates climate resilience into national security strategies, enhances coordination between environmental and security agencies, and fosters international cooperation to mitigate the destabilizing effects of climate change on public safety and stability. Failure to address these issues proactively could undermine national security by exacerbating social unrest, economic vulnerabilities, and geopolitical tensions.

References

1. Agnew, R. (2011). Dire forecast: A theoretical model of the impact of climate change on crime. Theoretical Criminology, 16(1).
2. Page, M. J., McKenzie, J. E., Bossuyt, P. M., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T. C., Mulrow, C. D., Shamseer, L., Tetzlaff, J. M., Akl, E. A., Brennan, S. E., Chou, R., Glanville, J., Grimshaw, J. M., Hróbjartsson, A., Lalu, M. M., Li, T., Loder, E. W., Mayo-Wilson, E., McDonald, S., McGuinness, L. A., … Moher, D. (2021). The PRISMA 2020 statement: an updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 372, n71. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71
3. Decamp, W., Lunn, B., Bottom, N.R. (2020). Workplace Crime and Deviance. The Professional Protection Officer (Second Edition). 305-320.
4. Crank, J. P., Jacoby, L. S. (2015). Modeling the Relationship Between Global Warming, Violence, and Crime. Crime, Violence, and Global Warming. 89-114.
5. Thomas, C., Wolff, K.T. (2023). Weird winter weather in the Anthropocene: How volatile temperatures shape violent crime. Journal of Criminal Justice. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2023.
6. Ranson, M. (2014). Crime, Weather, and Climate Change. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 67(3). 274-302.
7. Rotton, J., Cohn, E. G. (2003). Global Warming and U.S. Crime Rates: An Application of Routine Activity Theory. Environment and Behavior, 35(6). 802-825.
8. Crank, J. P., Jacoby, L. S. (2015). Modeling the Relationship Between Global Warming, Violence, and Crime. Crime, Violence, and Global Warming. 89-114.
9. Zohuri, B., Rahmani, F. M., Behgounia, F. (2022). Population-Human Growth Driving Ecology. Knowledge is Power in Four Dimensions: Models to Forecast Future Paradigm. 233-271.
10. Wallace, S. M., Lake, J. K. (2021). The Savage Effects of Global Warming: How Heat Influences Aggression in the City. Michigan Academician, 48(1). 39.
11. Novelo, A. M., Anderson, C. A. (2019). Climate Change and Psychology: Effects of Rapid Global Warming on Violence and Aggression. Current Climate Change Reports, 5(1). 36-46.
12. Suh, S. M., Chapman, D. A., Lickel, B. (2021). The role of psychological research in understanding and responding to links between climate change and conflict. Current Opinion in Psychology, 42. 43-48.
13. Manning, C., Clayton, S. (2018). Threats to Mental Health and Wellbeing Associated with Climate Change. Psychology and Climate Change. 217-244.
14. Chan, F., Zhang, X., Chen, Z. (2023). Behind Climate Change: Extreme Heat and Health Cost. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 64. 101-110.
15. Churchill, A., Smyth, S., Trinh, R., Anh, T. (2023). Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia. Economic Record, 99(324). 107.
16. Takahashi, R. (2017). Climate, Crime, and Suicide: Empirical Evidence from Japan. Climate Change Economics, 8(1). 1-14.
17. Peng, J., Zhan, Z. (2022). Extreme climate and crime: Empirical evidence based on 129 prefecture-level cities in China. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 10.

Crank, J. P., Jacoby, L. S. (2015). Modeling the Relationship Between Global Warming, Violence, and Crime. Crime, Violence, and Global Warming. 89-114.

Claire Dobson

Uğur Orak - Research Fellow

Ugur Orak, Ph.D., is a criminologist and Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology and Anthropology at Middle Tennessee State University. His research interests include developmental and life-course criminology, mental health, and military sociology.

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  A Scoping Review of the Effects of Climate Change on Crime Rates