On the NAVI Radar Weekly (06-12 May 2024)

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Focus Point: Security and Defence Policy – Emerging Threats and Global Risks

The AI Act Explorer | European Commission

European Commission | 06.05.2024 (Reached out)

The European Union will soon introduce new legislation on artificial intelligence: The EU AI Act. This regulation will lay the foundations for the regulation of AI in the EU.

Our AI Act Explorer enables you to explore the contents of the proposed Act in an intuitive way, or search for parts that are most relevant to you. It contains the full Final Draft of the Artificial Intelligence Act as of 19 April 2024. It will continue to be updated with newer versions of the text. Here you can learn how policymaking in the European Union works.

Read more…

 

Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security-European Security 

CrisisWatch Tracking Conflict Worldwide|International Crisis Group

International Crisis Group | May 2024

crisis watchCrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Global Overview APRIL 2024

CONFLICT RISK ALERTS: Myanmar , Israel/Palestine, Lebanon,  Sudan

DETERIORATED SITUATIONS: Colombia, Bosnia And Herzegovina,  Georgia,  Bangladesh, Myanmar,  Mali, Israel/Palestine,  Lebanon, Iran,  Ethiopia

IMPROVED SITUATIONS: Venezuela

 Read more…

 

Focus Point: Regional Security- Indo-Pacific

Move over, Quad; the new Squad has landed | Asia Times

Richard Javad Heydarian| 07.05.2024

(Left to Right) Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada, Philippine Defense Minister Carlito Galvez and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin pose for a photo in 2023.

Australia, Japan, Philippines and US forming new security partnership to replace ineffectual Quad and up the pressure on China.

As tensions rise in the South China Sea and the threat of a war over Taiwan becomes more palpable, the US Pentagon is stepping up its regional defense diplomacy in a potent challenge to China’s rising regional threats and ambitions.

Last week, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin hosted counterparts from Japan, Australia and the Philippines for what is being privately referred to as a budding new “Squad” defense partnership in the Indo-Pacific region. Read more…

 

Focus Point: Regional Security- Indo-Pacific

China slams Australian military for ‘disrupting’ drill after Yellow Sea helicopter confrontation | SCMP

Seong Hyeon Choi| 07.05.2024 | Subscription needed

In this undated photo from the Australian Defence Force, a Seahawk helicopter prepares to land on the deck of HMAS Hobart during flying operations while on a regional presence deployment off northern Australia. Photo: Australian Defence Force/AP
  • Foreign ministry says PLA aircraft warned off Australian helicopter that was ‘disrupting’ a Chinese exercise
  • Washington and Canberra have blasted ‘dangerous’ release of flares from Chinese fighter jet in international waters

China said on Tuesday that one of its fighter jets warned off an Australian military helicopter in the Yellow Sea because it was “disrupting” naval training, after Washington and Canberra slammed “unsafe and unprofessional” manoeuvres by a People’s Liberation Army aircraft.

The incident on Saturday occurred as the HMAS Hobart was enforcing United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korea in international waters in the Yellow Sea, according to the Australian Defence Department.

A Chinese Chengdu J-10 fighter jet intercepted an Australian navy Seahawk deployed from the Hobart and released flares along its flight path, in a manoeuvre that was “both unsafe and unprofessional”, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles said. Read more…

 

Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security-NATO

Group of experts publishes report on NATO’s southern neighbourhood | NATO

NATO | Report | 07.05.2024  | A  must read

Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană underlined the importance of NATO’s southern neighbourhood at an event hosted by the German Marshall Fund in Brussels on Tuesday (7 May 2024). What happens in the region directly affects the security of the Euro-Atlantic region, he stressed.

At the event an independent group of experts appointed to support NATO’s reflection on its southern neighbourhood published its final report and key findings, marking the end of its work. The report contains several recommendations to shape NATO’s approach in areas including the Middle East, North Africa and the Sahel.

The report can be accessed here.

The group of eleven experts, chaired by Professor Ana Santos Pinto, presented its findings to the North Atlantic Council in March and NATO Foreign Ministers provided feedback during their meeting in April. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has now presented concrete proposals to Allies, with the aim to agree a set of measures to strengthen the Alliance’s approach to its southern neighbourhood in time for the NATO Summit in Washington in July.

NATO’s southern neighbourhoods encompass a number of distinct regions and sub-regions such as North Africa, the Middle East, the Gulf and the Sahel, and the adjacent maritime regions. NATO should strengthen its representation and engagement in these regions, when needed and requested by partners, to improve NATO’s bilateral cooperation.  Read more…

 

Focus Point: Emerging Technologies & Data-AI

Saudi Arabia’s $100 Billion AI Fund Will Divest China If US Asks | Bloomberg

Marion Halftermeyer and Mackenzie Hawkins |08.05.2024  | Subscription needed

 

  • The $100 billion Saudi investment fund says US is top partner
  • Alat will announce two US company partnerships by end of June

The head of Saudi Arabia’s new investment fund for semiconductor and artificial intelligence technology said the country would divest from China if it were asked to do so by the US.

“So far the requests have been to keep manufacturing and supply chains completely separate, but if the partnerships with China would become a problem for the US, we will divest,” said Amit Midha, the chief executive officer of Alat, an investment firm backed by $100 billion in capital from the Public Investment Fund.

US officials have told their Saudi Arabian counterparts that they need to choose between Chinese and American technology as they aim to build out the Saudi Arabian semiconductor industry, Bloomberg has reported, as part of ongoing talks on a range of national security issues.
The US has already asked Abu Dhabi-based AI firm G42 to divest from Chinese technology, in exchange for continued access to US systems that power AI applications. That agreement paved the way for a $1.5 billion Microsoft Corp. investment in G42. Read more…

 

Focus Point: Regional Security- Indo-Pacific

China’s Military Satellites Are Watching America’s Every Move | The Newsweek

Aadil Brar | 08.05.2024 | Subscription needed

China's Satellite Launch From Xinchang Launch Center
China’s Satellite Launch From Xinchang Launch Center

China is fast challenging the United States’ monopoly in space as new remote-sensing satellites have allowed Beijing to monitor American military assets globally.

“The PLA has rapidly advanced in space in a way that few people can really appreciate,” Major General Gregory J. Gagnon, the Space Force’s deputy chief of space operations for intelligence, said at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies on May 2. Read more…

 

Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- Great Power Competition

Gaza Is China’s New Wedge Issue to Split US From Global South | Bloomberg

Michelle Jamrisko, Augusta Saraiva, and Peter Martin | 08.05.2024 | Subscription needed

Children stand by a crater at the site of a building following Israeli bombardment in Rafah, on May 8.
Children stand by a crater at the site of a building following Israeli bombardment in Rafah, on May 8.

Beijing criticizes US for sending weapons to the conflict
Both sides have stepped up efforts to grow influence abroad

Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin have united in challenging the US-led world order, which Beijing says is trying to contain its development. Their “no limits” relationship has attracted heightened scrutiny since the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, with the US repeatedly pressuring Beijing to condemn the war. That conflict has also become a point of tension between Washington and some Global South nations. Countries including Brazil, Indonesia, India and Turkey have rebuffed US efforts to enlist their help to back Ukraine, a position now echoed in their unwillingness to side with Israel in the wake of the Hamas attack. China also has peppered its state media with messaging on how officials are facilitating countries’ efforts to break into the Western-led international system. Two such China Daily headlines in March read “China a true diplomatic power for Global South” and “Multipolarization gaining traction across globe.” Read more…

 

Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security-Indo-Pacific

Xi Jinping hopes to improve EU–China relations – and drive a wedge between Europe and the US | Chatham House

Dr Yu Jie | 09.05.2024

Xi in Europe
Image — Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic (R) walks with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony in Belgrade, on May 8, 2024. (Photo by ELVIS BARUKCIC/AFP via Getty Images)

During President Xi Jinping’s trip to Europe this week, he must have discovered some parts of Europe have become an entirely different place since his visit five years ago.

Gone are the heydays of economic globalization, when China was viewed as an indispensable investment destination. Instead, the mood among European leaders is to ‘de-risk’ – moving investments and supply chains away from the world’s second largest economy.

Judging from his statements in Paris, Beijing’s assessment of Europe has also shifted. This is certainly a renewed charm offensive, hoping to tempt Europeans to continue to invest in China.

But equally Xi gave the EU tough warnings on Europe’s trade protectionism and its current diplomatic stance. In his own words, he expects ‘EU institutions to have a correct view on China’ which is an unprecedented line for China to take on the EU.

Despite a sense of bonhomie from all three countries he is visiting, it will be far from straightforward to effect a reconciliation on either the economic or diplomatic fronts. This is largely due to the development of China and Europe’s domestic politics and economies – and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The main purpose for Xi’s European tour is therefore damage limitation, preventing ties with Europe worsening even more, as they have with Washington. He is also seeking to exploit divisions within Europe on Ukraine and US relations, working towards China’s vision of a more multipolar world.

  • Some in Europe hope Beijing will change course on the war in Ukraine… But when it comes to foreign affairs, China’s priorities rarely change.
  • So far, Beijing’s main achievement in the eyes of European countries is showing its willingness to restrain Putin from entertaining the deployment of nuclear weapons.
  • The trip also shows the extent to which China’s… competition with the US has already reduced Beijing’s choice of European partners and consumers. Read more…

 

Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security-European Security 

Xi Jinping uses cold hard cash to keep Viktor Orbán close | Politico

Jordyn Dahl | 09.05.2024

TOPSHOT-HUNGARY-CHINA-POLITICS-DIPLOMACY
Xi Jinping and Viktor Orbán’s close relationship has been on full display this week as the Chinese leader wraps up his first Europe tour in five years by visiting Hungary. | Pool photo by Vivien Cher Benko via AFP/Getty Images

In an open letter to Hungary that in places reads more like a love note than an official government missive, Chinese President Xi Jinping reflected on a friendship “as mellow and rich as Tokaji wine.”

As sweet as Hungary’s wine is, its partnership with China is far more profitable, both politically and economically — and it’s setting up Hungary to be a dominant player in the continent’s shift to electric vehicles.

Despite governing a country that has been a member of the European Union for 20 years, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán identifies more closely with Xi than with his peers in the bloc, often bristling at European bureaucracy, rejecting its immigration and social policies, and denouncing its criticism of his government’s backsliding on the rule of law.

Xi and Orbán’s close relationship has been on full display this week as the Chinese leader wraps up his first Europe tour in five years by visiting Hungary — a sharp contrast to the start of his trip in Paris, which was overshadowed by a tense meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on trade and the war in Ukraine. Read more…

 

 Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- Russia-Ukraine War

Putin replaces Russian defense and security chiefs | Politico

Gabriel Gavin and Eva Hartog| 12.05.2024

TOPSHOT-RUSSIA-POLITICS-DEFENCE
Vladimir Putin said he will remove Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who has overseen Russia’s armed forces since 2012. | Pool photo by Alexey Danichev/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he will replace the country’s top defense and security officials from their posts, as Moscow’s forces race to conquer territory across Ukraine before a new wave of Western weaponry arrives in Kyiv.

In a statement Sunday evening, Putin said he will remove Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who has overseen Russia’s armed forces since 2012. He will be replaced by Andrei Belousov, an economist with no military experience. Shoigu was appointed as secretary of Russia’s Security Council, a consultative body that advises Putin on military and strategic issues.

Intelligence chief Nikolai Patrushev was dismissed from that position despite being widely seen as one of Putin’s closest, and most hawkish, confidants.

The appointment of Belousov, a veteran economic adviser, to the top defense job is being interpreted as a sign that Putin is looking to switch gears, more than two years into the war against Ukraine and just short of a year after a failed mutiny by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. Read more…

 

Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security-European Security 

Germany ‘considers conscripting all 18-year-olds’ amid fears of all-out NATO war with Russia – as Putin’s forces advance in Ukraine | The Mail

Natasha Anderson | 12.05.2024

Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz (pictured May 8) said on Saturday that Ukrainians with a residence permit and work in Germany can stay even as Ukraine seeks to recruit nationals living abroad to serve in the war against Russia
Germany’s chancellor Olaf Scholz (pictured May 8) said on Saturday that Ukrainians with a residence permit and work in Germany can stay even as Ukraine seeks to recruit nationals living abroad to serve in the war against Russia

German defence minister said he was ‘convinced’ Germany ‘needs conscription’
Germany could bring back conscription for all 18-year-olds amid fears out an all-out NATO war with Russia, leaked military plans reveal.
Military planners are discussing three potential plans, two of which involve a compulsory military year for all men once they turn 18.
It is understood that officials are in the final stages of discussions with German defence minister Boris Pistorius expected to go public with official plans next month, The Sunday Telegraph reported. Read more…

 

Thank you very much for reading.

The NAVI Research Institute is the research division of NATO Veterans Initiative - NAVI that provides a unique perspective to transatlantic leaders and societies on peace and security through the lens of NATO's founding principles of rule of law, democracy, human rights, and individual liberties. The NAVI Research Institute was officially established by the NAVI Board on July 16th, 2023.

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