On the NAVI Radar Weekly 16-22 September 2024

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Focus Point: Social, Economic & Security Studies – Social

European Democracy is Weakening | Euronews

By Marta Iraola Iribarren & video by Aïda Sanchez Alonso | 17.09.2024

While Europe shows better results than other regions, International IDEA warns that some of the ingredients of a healthy democracy, including civil liberties and access to justice, are under threat.

Europe’s rule of law has seen a noted declined over five years, found the report, which examined 221 national elections held in 159 countries between May 2020 and April 2024.

“In some European countries, the executive powers are putting pressure on the courts, stacking them with people that support them,” said van der Staak, highlighting the pressure on democracy in Bulgaria, Greece, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

“I expect that in the next couple of years, more attention will focus on this rule of law since it’s one of the biggest weaknesses of democracy in Europe.”

Many European countries are lagging on freedom of expression and the press, the report said, noting Greece’s struggles with academic freedom and attempts by governments in Italy and Slovakia to pressure the media.

France is also flagged, given concerns over people being excluded from political processes depending on economic factors, such as discrimination based on wealth. Read more…


Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security/NATO

NATO Members in the Global State of Democracy 2024 | NAVI Research Institute

NAVI Research Institute| 17.09.2024

International IDEA published the Global State of Democracy 2024: Strengthening the Legitimacy of Elections in a Time of Radical Uncertainty report on 16 September 2024.

This comprehensive report examines key global trends related to democracy and human rights, with a sharp focus on election credibility.

In these 2024 super-cycle elections, candidates present transformational agendas to nearly 3 billion voters worldwide. However, the report highlights that democracy continues to face significant challenges.

In light of the report’s findings, it would be prudent to pay close attention to developments in Türkiye, Hungary, and North Macedonia.  Read more…


Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security/European Security

The Draghi Report: A Vision for Europe’s Future Amid Global Challenges | NAVI Research Insititute

NAVI Research Institute |17.09.2024

Prof Mark Eyskens

In a recent article, The Telegraph addressed the EU’s diverse economic growth strategies, including an analysis of the latest Draghi Report.

The article underscores the EU’s persistent difficulties in attaining sustainable economic growth despite implementing numerous strategies and initiatives. Furthermore, it addresses the broader implications for the EU’s global economic standing and the potential impact on the UK.

David Frost, former Chief Negotiator for Brexit and subsequently a Cabinet minister under the Boris Johnson government from 2019 to 2021, concluded the argument as follows: “Brexit is failing,” say know-nothing commentators here. In fact, if anything is failing it’s the Monnet method, the EU institutions, and the existing European elites who prop them up. They’ve run out of the road. They don’t know how to proceed. Unless they can find it in themselves to abandon much of what they have come to believe, they will, sooner or later, be left behind by history – and by the rest of the world, too.

The NAVI Research Institute posed a question to Prof. Mark Eyskens, a distinguished Belgian economist, academic, and politician, regarding the points raised in this article, with a particular focus on the trajectory of the EU’s economic policies and their impact on the European autonomy and defense industry. Read more…


Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security/European Security

The EU’s overstretched asylum system | FT

FT | 17.09.2024 | Subscription needed

A German police officer stands guard next to a bus at a border with France, as all German land borders are subject to random controls to protect internal security and reduce irregular migration, in Kehl, Germany

For practical and cost reasons, some asylum-seekers may inevitably need to be housed and processed offshore. But following well-documented mistreatment of vulnerable migrants in some places, further pacts with the likes of Turkey, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt must involve greater European and international oversight — and be conditional on upholding migrants’ human rights. And EU leaders should eschew “pushbacks”, or measures to force migrants back behind external borders, which are cruel, ineffective and often illegal. Read more…


Focus Point: Regional Security- Western Balkans

NATO reiterates its full support to EU efforts in Kosovo | NATO

NATO| 17.09.2024

EU and NATO flags

NATO reiterates its full support to EU efforts in Kosovo. NATO’s Assistant Secretary General for Operations, Tom Goffus, joined Mr. Stefano Tomat, Civilian Operations Commander at the European Union External Action Service, in separate meetings with the chief negotiators of Belgrade and Pristina.

NATO’s KFOR peacekeeping mission works to maintain a safe and secure environment and freedom of movement for all people in Kosovo, impartially and in line with its UN mandate. KFOR and the EU Rule of Law (EULEX) mission maintain close coordination, in their respective roles as security responders. Read more…


Focus Point: Emerging Technologies & Data / Cybersecurity

Chinese spies spent months inside aerospace engineering firm’s network via legacy IT | The Register

Jessica Lyons | 18.09.2024

Chinese state-sponsored spies have been spotted inside a global engineering firm’s network, having gained initial entry using an admin portal’s default credentials on an IBM AIX server.

In an exclusive interview with The Register, Binary Defense’s Director of Security Research John Dwyer said the cyber snoops first compromised one of the victim’s three unmanaged AIX servers in March, and remained inside the US-headquartered manufacturer’s IT environment for four months while poking around for more boxes to commandeer.

It’s a tale that should be a warning to those with long- or almost-forgotten machines connected to their networks; those with shadow IT deployments; and those with unmanaged equipment. While the rest of your environment is protected by whatever threat detection you have in place, these legacy services are perfect starting points for miscreants. Read more…


Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- The EU-Migration

The Brutal Truth Behind Italy’s Migrant Reduction: Beatings and Rape by EU-funded Forces in Tunisia | The Guardian

By a Guardian reporter in Sfax |19.09.2024 | A must read

A group of heavily armed men in combat fatigues and balaclavas
Members of the national guard’s special unit. One Sfax organisation says it is aware of a large number of cases of violent rape and torture by the national guard. Photograph: Unité spécial Garde Nationale

That agreement saw the EU pledge £89m migration-related funding to Tunisia. Large sums, according to internal documents, appear to have gone to the national guard.
The pact vows to combat migrant smugglers. A Guardian investigation, however, alleges national guard officers are colluding with smugglers to arrange migrant boat trips.

The deal also pledges “respect for human rights”. Yet smugglers and migrants reveal that the national guard is routinely robbing, beating and abandoning women and children in the desert without food or water.

Senior Brussels sources admit the EU is “aware” of the abuse allegations engulfing Tunisia’s security forces but is turning a blind eye in its desperation, led by Italy, to outsource Europe’s southern border to Africa.

In fact there are plans to send more money to Tunisia than publicly admitted.
Despite mounting human rights concerns, the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, prompted dismay on Monday by expressing interest in the model of paying Tunisia to stop people reaching Europe. Read more…


Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security/NATO

Farewell Speech by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the German Marshall Fund event “Reflections on a Challenging Decade”| NATO

NATO |19.09.2024

NATO - News: Secretary General outlines key lessons for NATO's continued success after a decisive decade at the helm, 19-Sep.-2024
Speaking at an event hosted by the German Marshall Fund on Thursday (19 September 2024), Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg shared five key lessons for NATO’s continued success following a decisive decade at the helm of NATO.

Mr Stoltenberg concluded his speech by emphasising the importance of the transatlantic bond between Europe and North America, highlighting that “investing in the transatlantic relationship is the only winning way forward.”

As part of his farewell speech, Mr Stoltenberg underlined the importance of continuing to increase defence spending and ensuring robust economic relations among Allies. He highlighted NATO’s steadfast support for Ukraine and how crucial this will be in helping to bring an end to Russia’s war. Reflecting on NATO’s experience in Afghanistan, the Secretary General also underlined on the need to clearly define the objectives of any future military operations beyond NATO’s borders. Read more…


Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy Studies / The Future of Warfare

Chad Sweet talks with CNBC about supply chain attack | The Chertoff Group

The Chertoff Group | 20.09.2024

Chertoff Group CEO and Co-Founder Chad Sweet

Co-Founder and CEO of The Chertoff Group Chad Sweet visited with the hosts of CNBC Power Lunch on Friday about the supply chain attack by Israel on Hezbollah using common electronics, pagers and two-way radios.

Indications are that the Israeli’s were able to infiltrate the supply chain by targeting primary and then secondary lines of communication. Beyond the physical harm to Hezbollah members and civilians, these attacks have likely overwhelmed local hospitals.

It is worth noting that this required a state-level actor to orchestrate and is probably one of the greatest intelligence operations of our generation.

This is why membership in programs like C-TPAT (Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism) matter. The US government relies on partnership with industry to deter, detect, and disrupt terrorism subversion of supply chains. In many cases, importers and manufacturers are the first line of defense. Read more…


Focus Point: Regional Security / Indo-Pacific

Is China preparing to attack Japan?| The Hill

Dan Blumenthal| 20.09.2024

PLA doctrine emphasizes a preemptive disabling attack to clear the way for a massive invasion of Taiwan. In such a scenario, the PLA would ferry hundreds of thousands of invasion troops across the Strait with naval vessels and dual-use civilian ships. A pre-emptive strike by China against U.S. and allied air and naval power would provide the Chinese with the air and maritime superiority that such a huge and complex amphibious operation requires. Indeed, historically no modern amphibious operation has been successful absent the invader’s neutralization of its adversary’s navy and air force.

Here is the rub, though: The strategic and geopolitical risks for Xi Jinping of attacking the world’s largest and fourth-largest economies would be enormous.

Neither the U.S. nor its allies have been attacked in this manner since World War II. Even Russian President Vladimir Putin has limited his highly aggressive operations against Ukraine to avoid attacking the U.S. or its allies. He has accepted more operational risk and military losses to avoid a strategic disaster. Read more…


 Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- Defense Discussions

Israel’s Pager Attacks Have Changed the World | NYT

Bruce Schneier | 22.09.2024

A car with its windows blown out.

Israel’s brazen attacks on Hezbollah last week, in which hundreds of pagers and two-way radios exploded and killed at least 37 people, graphically illustrated a threat that cybersecurity experts have been warning about for years: Our international supply chains for computerized equipment leave us vulnerable. And we have no good means to defend ourselves.

Though the deadly operations were stunning, none of the elements used to carry them out were particularly new. The tactics employed by Israel, which has neither confirmed nor denied any role, to hijack an international supply chain and embed plastic explosives in Hezbollah devices have been used for years.

What’s new is that Israel put them together in such a devastating and extravagantly public fashion, bringing into stark relief what the future of great power competition will look like — in peacetime, wartime and the ever expanding gray zone in between.

The targets won’t just be terrorists. Our computers are vulnerable, and increasingly, so are our cars, our refrigerators, our home thermostats and many other useful things in our orbits. Targets are everywhere. Read more…


Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- Russia-Ukraine War

Satellite Images Show Destruction of Russian Ammunition Depot in Air Strike | Newsweek

Ellie Cook | 22.09.2024  | Subscription needed

Image
An image shared by the investigative arm of the U.S.-backed Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty outlet on Saturday seemed to show a blaze at a munitions storage facility in southern Russia, which Ukraine said it had targeted overnight.

Kyiv has doggedly targeted Russia’s military assets, including ammunition sites and air bases, across the border as it tries to damage Moscow’s ability to wage war against its neighbor, more than two and a half years into full-scale war.

Newsweek could not independently verify the veracity of the image, and has contacted to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email. Read more…

 

Thank you very much for reading.

The NAVI Research Institute is the research division of NATO Veterans Initiative - NAVI that provides a unique perspective to transatlantic leaders and societies on peace and security through the lens of NATO's founding principles of rule of law, democracy, human rights, and individual liberties. The NAVI Research Institute was officially established by the NAVI Board on July 16th, 2023.

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