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Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- Great Power Competition
Alex Karp Has Money and Power. So What Does He Want?| The NYT
Maureen Dowd|17.08.2024
Alex Karps thinks the United States is “very likely” to end up in a three-front war with China, Russia and Iran. So, he argues, we have to keep going full-tilt on autonomous weapons systems, because our adversaries will — and they don’t have the same moral considerations that we do.
The United States is “very likely” to end up in a three-front war with China, Russia and Iran.
“I think we’re in an age when nuclear deterrent is actually less effective because the West is very unlikely to use anything like a nuclear bomb, whereas our adversaries might,” he said. “Where you have technological parity but moral disparity, the actual disparity is much greater than people think.”
“In fact,” he added, “given that we have parity technologically but we don’t have parity morally, they have a huge advantage.” Read more…
Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- Great Power Competition
Biden Approved Secret Nuclear Strategy Refocusing on Chinese Threat | The NYT
David E. Sanger|20.08.2024
In a classified document approved in March, the president ordered U.S. forces to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China and North Korea.
President Biden approved in March a highly classified nuclear strategic plan for the United States that, for the first time, reorients America’s deterrent strategy to focus on China’s rapid expansion in its nuclear arsenal.
The shift comes as the Pentagon believes China’s stockpiles will rival the size and diversity of the United States’ and Russia’s over the next decade.
The White House never announced that Mr. Biden had approved the revised strategy, called the “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” which also newly seeks to prepare the United States for possible coordinated nuclear challenges from China, Russia and North Korea. The document, updated every four years or so, is so highly classified that there are no electronic copies, only a small number of hard copies distributed to a few national security officials and Pentagon commanders. Read more…
Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security/Western Balkans
The silent nightmare of Balkan depopulation| Euobserver
Rigels Lenja| 20.08.2024| Subscription needed
There is a silent nightmare taking place in the Balkans, with large-scale emigration plus by a low birth rate. Serbia and Albania have lost over half a million people since 2014, Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected to lose half of its manpower by 2050 (more than during the 1990 wars), and Croatia losing more than one million citizens since 1990.
The Balkans has been the epicentre of relentless wars and ethnic cleansing — but there is nothing of greater threat than a continually-shrinking population…
EU membership brings many benefits, ranging from democratisation, the rule of law, the protection of minorities and the freedom of speech. One thing the low-income countries currently in, or aiming to join, the EU had not anticipated was large-scale migration.
The Balkans has been the epicentre of relentless wars and ethnic cleansing — but there is nothing of greater threat than a continually-shrinking population, fuelled by low birth rates, massive emigration and an increasingly unattractive market for foreign investment. Read more…
Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security/ Middle East
Israel accepts ‘bridging proposal’ for ceasefire deal – Blinken | BBC
Tom Bateman | 20.07.2024
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to an American “bridging proposal” for a ceasefire deal in Gaza.
It is now up to Hamas to agree, Mr Blinken added.
The pair met in Tel Aviv for talks that Mr Netanyahu has described as “positive”, with his office adding that he had reiterated his commitment to an American proposal on the release of the hostages still held by Hamas, which took into account Israel’s security needs.
Mr Blinken had earlier warned this was “maybe the last opportunity” to secure a ceasefire agreement, as the US hopes to push a deal over the finish line. Read more…
Focus Point: Regional Security- Transatlantic Security/Western Balkans
NATO reaffirms commitment to regional stability as Assistant Secretary General Ruge wraps up trip to Western Balkans| NATO
NATO| 22.08.2024
NATO Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Security Policy, Ambassador Boris Ruge, held high-level consultations in Sarajevo, Pristina and Belgrade from 16 to 22 August 2024. Ambassador Ruge highlighted that the Western Balkans is a region of strategic importance for the Alliance and reiterated NATO Allies’ steadfast commitment to lasting security. He noted the continued, long-standing cooperation between NATO, the European Union and other international organisations to consolidate regional stability. Read more…
Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- The EU-Migration
Hungarian minister offers to buy migrants ‘one-way ticket’ to Brussels | Euronews
By Euronews| 22.08.2024
Gergely Gulyás slammed the EU’s top court for ordering Budapest to pay €200 million for flouting asylum rules.
A Hungarian government minister has warned the EU that the country will send migrants to Brussels if the bloc continues to demand that it accept more asylum seekers.
“If Brussels wants migrants, they will get them,”
“If Brussels wants migrants, they will get them,” Gergely Gulyás, minister for the prime minister’s office told a press conference on Thursday. “We will give everyone a one-way ticket if the EU makes it impossible to stop migration at the external border.”
The minister made the incendiary remarks in reference to a heavy €200 million fine that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) handed down to Hungary in June for repeatedly ignoring EU asylum rules.
At the time, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán described the court’s decision as “outrageous and unacceptable”. Read more…
Focus Point: Regional Security- European Security
Former head of British Army issues stern warning about war with Russia | msn.com
msn.com | 23.08.2024
The former head of the British Army General Sir Patrick Sanders, warned that As well as needing to deter Russia, Britain will need to contend with emerging threats elsewhere within the next ten years.
‘There is a risk of an alignment, that ending the war in Ukraine, Russian recapitalisation and China saying the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) needs to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 creates a point of acute danger in around 2028 or so,’ The former head of the British Army General Sir Patrick Sanders.
Speaking on the Money Maze podcast this week, the former head of the British Army General Sir Patrick Sanders, who stood down from his role in June, said: ‘We need to ensure we can operate at scale. ‘That means regrowing our stockpiles, but it also means that the army, which is historically very small at the moment – in an era where we are returning to great power conflict – is capable of being grown rapidly.
Voicing his concerns just weeks after he stepped down from the top role, Sir Patrick said: ‘If we don’t regrow what are very, very, empty stockpiles at the moment and recapitalise then we risk making conflict an inevitability.’ It comes after his successor, Gen Sir Roland Walker, warned that the UK needed to be able to fight a major war within as little as three years, anticipating that Moscow may seek revenge on the West for supporting Ukraine. Read more…
Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- Emerging Threats and Global Risks
Vladimir Putin’s ‘Iron Doll’ makes WW3 threat – ‘we are a nuclear power’ |Irish Star
John O’sullivan |23.08.2024
Fears of World War 3 have ramped up as a top Russian pundit, often dubbed Vladimir Putin’s Iron Doll, has issued a stark nuclear warning amidst the Ukraine conflict. Olga Skabeyeva, one of the Kremlin’s loudest supporters on governmental airwaves, hinted that Russia would not shrink from resorting to nuclear responses if Ukrainian advances persist.
After Ukraine’s claimed recapture of over 1,000 square kilometers of territory and over 90 settlements within Kursk during their offensive in the past few weeks, Putin’s proponents are rattling their nuclear sabers louder than ever.
Speaking to anxious viewers, Ms Skabeyeva proclaimed: “The depth of Ukraine’s penetration into Russia has begun to cause discomfort. Therefore, I want to voice the following appeal: Ukrainians, not so deep. We are a nuclear power after all.” Read more…
Focus Point: Security and Defense Policy- Great Power Competition
China and UK must be able to talk frankly and cooperate, Starmer tells Xi| Reuters
By Reuters | 23.08.2024
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday the two countries must be able to talk frankly about their disagreements and also pursue closer economic ties and work together on global issues.
Xi told Starmer during a phone call that he hoped Britain would “look at China objectively and rationally”, the Chinese official news agency Xinhua said.
Starmer’s office said the two leaders had discussed areas of collaboration including trade, the economy and education, and agreed that as permanent members of the U.N. Security Council they should work closely on global security and climate change. Read more…
Thank you very much for reading.
The NAVI Research Institute is the research division of NATO Veterans Initiative - NAVI that provides a unique perspective to transatlantic leaders and societies on peace and security through the lens of NATO's founding principles of rule of law, democracy, human rights, and individual liberties. The NAVI Research Institute was officially established by the NAVI Board on July 16th, 2023.
